287
FXUS63 KBIS 231459
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING, WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BRING
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VISIBILITY IS IMPROVING IN THE SOUTHWEST AS FOG RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD OVERALL BE SHORT LIVED, YET HAVE ADDED IN
SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE TODAY BRINING A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S TODAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ALSO SEE WEAK INSTABILITY
AND ARE CLOSE TO A MONSOONAL WAVE IN WYOMING. THIS COULD RESULT
IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS MODEST TODAY, THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LIFT SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH COULD CONTINUE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AREAS
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTH
HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. AN
ISOLATED STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT,
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. ALSO LOOK FOR MILD LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY. SPC HAS INCREASED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. SURFACE TO 850 LAYER SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
COULD BE SOME MORNING CONVECTION WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM. AS THE MENTION TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, IF THE CAP IN PLACE CAN BE BROKEN.
IF THE CAP IS BROKEN, THERE LOOKS TO BE A WEAK COOL BOUNDARY
PUSH OUT THE WARM FRONT DURING PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. A PSEUDO
TRIPLE POINT SETS UP IN THIS CASE, MAINLY IN THE AREA OF THE
SLIGHT RISK. THIS FEATURE RESULTS IN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MUCAPE IN
A MODEST TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. RIGHT NOW THE SHEAR VECTOR
WOULD FAVOR MULTICLUSTER CELLS, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW THE
BOUNDARIES SET UP THERE COULD BE SUPERCELLS AT LEAST INITIALLY.
DCAPE LOOKS HIGH, AND MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING SOME INVERTED-V
SIGNATURES. THUS THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS SETUP IS HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WHERE THE MENTIONED TRIPLE POINT
SETS UP. THIS DEPENDS ON STORM MODE BEING SUPERCELLS, AND SOME
LOWERING OF LCLS FROM STORM INTERACTIONS. SPC HAS A 2 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TORNADOES THUS WILL MESSAGE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
THE 90S AND 100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 ARE POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH DO NOT LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. HEAT RISK
AND WET BULB GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PRODUCTS ALSO LOOK TO START
INCREASING THE HEAT THREAT, YET NOT AS HIGH AS THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT PRODUCTS. OF CONCERN
COULD BE SOME NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AS DEWPOINTS LOWER IN THESE AREAS AND THE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE BRINGS SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. FUELS
AND HOW MANY HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON FIRE PRODUCTS FOR NOW. LASTLY,
THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT AND TO THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE WAS JUST SHORT TO ADD IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
YET WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED.
DANGEROUS HEAT IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY ONLY SLIGHTLY
COOLER. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 100S ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. HEAT PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED YET ARE BEING HELD
OFF FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH DEWPOINTS THIS WEEKEND.
FORECAST STILL SHOWING DRYER AIR WITH THIS WARMUP COULD LIMIT
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES COMPARED TO THE LAST EXTREME HEAT EVENT.
ALTHOUGH, FORECAST HIGHS NEAR 105 DEGREES WILL MAKE REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA A LIKELY OCCURRENCE THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW COLD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS
WEEKEND. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK LIMITED, ALTHOUGH CSU-MLP IS
SHOWING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS
TO LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US INTO NEXT WEEK
KEEPING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES COULD ALSO BRING SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF ANY BREEZY DAYS ARE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOME CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED IN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR MIST AT KDIK, WITH CONFIDENCE IN FOG TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS FEW TO SCT MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE FOUND AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE
FOUND IN THE NORTH LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page