303
FXUS63 KBIS 231936
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
236 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING, WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100 DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER, THE RETURN OF VERY HOT CONDITIONS, AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
WEST CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND WAA THAT
COULD FORCE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY OVERALL, ANY STORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY AND AROUND
40 TO 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS
POSSIBLE, THOUGH IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE AND WHETHER
OR NOT STORMS CAN EVEN BECOME SURFACE BASED TO BEGIN WITH.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERE THREAT OVERALL.
FIRST, PER THE RAP, CIN NEVER FULLY ERODES. THIS MAY NOT
COMPLETELY INHIBIT CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IT COULD HELP RESULT IN
STORMS BEING MORE ELEVATED, WHICH WOULD INHIBIT THE TORNADO
THREAT FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS MENTIONED. CSU MACHINE LEARNING
TENDS TO BACK THIS SCENARIO WITH NO TORNADO OUTLINE. A SECOND
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS SMOKE. WHILE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS MORE
LIKELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (MORE SO A WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY), ELEVATED SMOKE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. IF THIS HELPS LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO, IT COULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
BEYOND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY, OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY LOW AND MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS (LEADING TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. CURRENTLY, NONE OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS OUTLINED BY SPC SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
CSU MAINTAINS MARGINAL EQUIVALENT RISK PROBS IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE SUNDAY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE EASTERN
CWA CLIPPED SUNDAY BY SPC AS WELL ONCE IT ENTERS "DAY 3"
TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 100S FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA, WHILE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THAT
SAID, HEAT INDICES FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES
AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE COMPARED TO LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE STATE (THE SOUTHWEST). THEREFORE,
NOT ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
AND WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FORM OF HEAT HEADLINE WHEN ALL
IS SAID AND DONE. ONE FINAL NOTE IS THAT THESE HOT CONDITIONS,
COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, WILL LEAD TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. FIRST,
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SECOND,
MILKY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM ELEVATED
SMOKE. OF GREATER NOTE, SOME NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE COULD BEGIN TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS AT PATCHY FOG IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL ND TONIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG ALSO REMAINS LOW.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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