615
FXUS63 KBIS 260552
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. HEAT BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DYING THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
MAY CAUSE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY SOUTHWEST,
WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE
WEEK REMAINS HOT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 90S, BUT WITH SOME
READING ABOVE 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
- DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40%) CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS DIED OFF IN NORTHEAST MONTANA, BUT STILL
WATCHING SOME LIGHT RETURNS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING PULSES
APPROACH OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA. AS
PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE MENTIONED, MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE HEAT BURSTS AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE. UPSTREAM WIND OBS IN MONTANA HAVE
BEEN PRETTY TAME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WEAK RADAR RETURNS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN BE FOUND
OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING, FOUND ALONG
THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT OF A STORM COMPLEX FOUND IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MORE STORMS UPSTREAM
IN EASTERN MONTANA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE ND/MT
LATER THIS EVENING. WITH ROBUST INHIBITION BLANKETING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST LONG THESE STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A HANDFUL OF CAMS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE AT LEAST SOME STORMS PERSISTING INTO EARLY HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE DRY AND WARM ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS
ALSO CONDUCIVE TO HEAT BURSTS, MEANING THAT SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN WITH DYING THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PLACED
MUCH OF WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT.
REGARDING UPDATES, HAVE BLENDED IN THE LATEST CAMS INTO THE POPS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
ISOLATED WEAK RADAR RETURNS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AT THE TIME OF THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE. LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL MONTANA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MOVING TOWARD THE ND/MT BORDER. SHORT TERM CAMS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE LONGEVITY OF THESE STORMS DUE TO THE
FAIRLY ROBUST CAPPING EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THIS TIME, THOUGH ONE OR TWO MODELS CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS,
HAVE OPTED TO SPREAD LOW POPS (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE SCENARIO WHERE STORMS DO
END UP DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS THEY CROSS OVER THE ND/MT BORDER,
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AS THE VERY
HOT AND DRY VERTICAL COLUMN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAT BURSTS. ALL OF THAT IS TO SAY, WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HETTINGER HAD
ALREADY REACHED 104 DEGREES AS OF NOON MDT. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ARE ALSO AROUND THE 100
DEGREE MARK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN BISMARCK, OUR MORNING FOG
HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT WE ARE
CATCHING UP QUICK WITH AN EARLY AFTERNOON READING IN THE MID
90S. THE HEAT ADVISORY STARTED AT 1 PM CDT AND NO CHANGES HERE
WITH TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE FOR
THE ADVISORY AREA.
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, YET A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, PRODUCING A MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUST.
SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY TEMPERATURES WISE, WITH
FORECAST HIGHS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER 100 DEGREES OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM. IF ANYTHING, PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM BRUSHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY MORNING,
AND POSSIBLY SOME DISSIPATING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE WEST
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND HOT. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY IS MINIMAL.
THE VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, COMBINED WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE, MAY CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 12 TO 18 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE DRY COLD
FRONT TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST TO 30 MPH. DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS, GRASSES HAVE BEGUN TO CURE AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FLATTENS A LITTLE BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST, BUT
WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXTENSIONS OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT MAY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO MONDAY. AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES. A
MORNING OR OVERNIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
THOUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT
TEMPERATURES, MAINLY IN THE 90S, BUT WITH SOME 100 DEGREE
READINGS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. OVERALL THOUGH, NOT
QUITE AS HOT AS THIS WEEKEND. DAILY LOW CHANCES (20-30%)
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WITH A LOW
PREDICTABILITY IN WHEN AND WHERE THEY MAY OCCUR. THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE THAT BRIEFLY
FLATTENS THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING
KDIK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AND TIMING WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE WITH THIS UPDATE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-
057>062.
UPDATE...JONES
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...JONES
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