121
FXUS63 KBIS 262027
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DANGEROUSLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 107 DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY SOUTHWEST,
WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE
WEEK REMAINS HOT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 90S, BUT WITH SOME
READINGS ABOVE 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW UNTIL MIDWEEK, WHEN THERE IS A
30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VERY HOT AND SMOKY WEATHER CONTINUES. PUBLIC REPORT FROM
WILLISTON INDICATED SMOKY CONDITIONS WITH THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN
THE AIR. THE LATEST VISIBILITY OBSERVATION FROM WILLISTON HAS
DROPPED TO 4SM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE ROLLING IN
FROM MONTANA. THERE IS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH MUCH LESS SMOKE IN CANADA. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE SMOKE CONFINED TO THE
CONTINENTAL U.S AND THERE IS A DEFINITE THICKENING OF THE SMOKE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT REMAINS SMOKY AS YOU GO
SOUTH, BUT SMOKE CONCENTRATION IS LESS. HAVE EXPANDED THE SMOKE
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE CONSIDERATIONS OF EXPANDING THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT IN THE END WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON THIS. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, WHILE LAST NIGHT LOWS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ALTHOUGH NOT COOL BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THE LOWER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERNIGHT HEAT IMPACTS. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW, AND IN THE END,
FELT THERE WAS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. WE
STILL MAY NEED TO ISSUE SOMETHING OVERNIGHT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND/OR SOUTH CENTRAL, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE 90S. A FEW 80S MAY BE
FOUND IN THE FAR NORTH, AND A FEW READINGS OF 100 TO 103 ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE NBM HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 20 PERCENT)
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, GENERALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ARE AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CAPPING ISSUES, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY
WITHIN AN AREA WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BETTER PROBABILITIES REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT GIVEN THE HEAT, AND FOR CONSISTENCY WILL
MAINTAIN THESE POPS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK LOOKS TO BE NOT QUITE AS HOT AS
THIS WEEKEND, BUT WE STILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(NORMAL IS IN THE LOWER 80S) IN MOST AREAS. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND IMPULSES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE, GENERALLY LOW POPS (20 TO 30%) ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEK. A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CURRENTLY THE
NBM IS DEPICTING A BROADBRUSH AREA OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS. WE
WILL SEE IF THESE POPS REMAIN THAT HIGH, BUT THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DOES NECESSITATE THE
BROADBRUSH NATURE OF THE POPS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NORTHERLY IN WESTERN ND AND EXPECT THIS SHIFT TO
SPREAD EAST THROUGH CENTRAL ND TODAY. WINDS THEN REMAIN LIGHT
NORTHERLY TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AT
THIS TIME THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO NOT ADD SMOKE TO THE
TAFS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017>020-022-023-025-031>033-035>037-040>044-046>048-050-051-
057>062.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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