051
FXUS63 KBIS 270624
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND 90 TO 100.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD ENTER FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY WHEN THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS FROM SMOKE HAVE MARGINALLY IMPROVED SINCE THE EVENING,
BUT ARE STILL IN THE 6 TO 10 MILE RANGE ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND, WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND MUCH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES ARE ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER
BEHIND THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE, HEAT INDICES HAVE RAPIDLY DROPPED IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREFORE, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SMOKE PROPAGATION CONTINUES FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN MODELS HAVE
PREDICTED, THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED PATCHY SMOKE
MENTIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, SMOKE IS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VERY HOT AND SMOKY WEATHER CONTINUES. PUBLIC REPORT FROM
WILLISTON INDICATED SMOKY CONDITIONS WITH THE SMELL OF SMOKE IN
THE AIR. THE LATEST VISIBILITY OBSERVATION FROM WILLISTON HAS
DROPPED TO 4SM. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE ROLLING IN
FROM MONTANA. THERE IS A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH MUCH LESS SMOKE IN CANADA. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE KEEPING MOST OF THE SMOKE CONFINED TO THE
CONTINENTAL U.S AND THERE IS A DEFINITE THICKENING OF THE SMOKE
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT REMAINS SMOKY AS YOU GO
SOUTH, BUT SMOKE CONCENTRATION IS LESS. HAVE EXPANDED THE SMOKE
TO INCLUDE MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE CONSIDERATIONS OF EXPANDING THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT IN THE END WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON THIS. FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, WHILE LAST NIGHT LOWS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
ALTHOUGH NOT COOL BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, THE LOWER
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE OVERNIGHT HEAT IMPACTS. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST HIGHS TOMORROW, AND IN THE END,
FELT THERE WAS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY. WE
STILL MAY NEED TO ISSUE SOMETHING OVERNIGHT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND/OR SOUTH CENTRAL, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ARE GENERALLY IN THE 90S. A FEW 80S MAY BE
FOUND IN THE FAR NORTH, AND A FEW READINGS OF 100 TO 103 ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL, GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE NBM HAS BEEN CARRYING A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 20 PERCENT)
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, GENERALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS ARE AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CAPPING ISSUES, BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY
WITHIN AN AREA WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BETTER PROBABILITIES REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT GIVEN THE HEAT, AND FOR CONSISTENCY WILL
MAINTAIN THESE POPS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK LOOKS TO BE NOT QUITE AS HOT AS
THIS WEEKEND, BUT WE STILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(NORMAL IS IN THE LOWER 80S) IN MOST AREAS. WITH THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND IMPULSES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER
RIDGE, GENERALLY LOW POPS (20 TO 30%) ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE WEEK. A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE DOES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. CURRENTLY THE
NBM IS DEPICTING A BROADBRUSH AREA OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT POPS. WE
WILL SEE IF THESE POPS REMAIN THAT HIGH, BUT THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DOES NECESSITATE THE
BROADBRUSH NATURE OF THE POPS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THICK ALOFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FROM THE SMOKE ARE LESS CERTAIN, BUT MVFR COULD RETURN TO PARTS
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. ASIDE FROM THE SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY, WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SOME
GUSTY WINDS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WITH
VARYING DIRECTIONS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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