868
FXUS63 KBIS 271949
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND 90 TO 100.
- SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THE SKY
HAZY AND REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITY EARLY THIS WEEK.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COULD ENTER FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD BEING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (30 TO 70 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
CURRENTLY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND, BUT DO
EXTEND SOUTH AS YOU GET TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. ELSEWHERE,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST (MAINLY BOWMAN AND ADAMS
COUNTIES). SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST ND WILL BE IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE LOW. THERE IS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE ABOVE AN AREA OF GOOD CIN. THE FAR SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE
THE ONE AREA IN THE WEST WHICH COULD SEE MOST OF THE CIN ERODE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EVERY SO OFTEN ONE OF
THE CAMS WILL SHOW A FEW STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
A COMBINATION OF THE DECREASED CIN AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD
SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. IN THE NORTH CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE WITH GOOD
SHEAR AS YOU MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATED INCREASING CIN OVER BOTH WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE,
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW.
TONIGHT CAMS DO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SPREADING WEST TO EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL,
ALONG WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH SPREADING SOUTH
AND EAST. REALLY UNCERTAIN ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
ACTIVITY TONIGHT GIVEN THE GENERAL STRONG CAPPING, SO STUCK MORE
TO A BROADBRUSH OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT.
ELEVATED SMOKE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, SO KEPT A MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST AND PUT A LOWER
LIMIT ON THE SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB HIGHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS
TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
AREA. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES, EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 90S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS OR A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUMP UP
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. THIS COULD BUMP APPARENT
TEMPERATURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO GIVE IT ANOTHER DAY.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A LIMITED AREA
AND FOR A LIMITED DURATION SO WOULD MOST LIKELY PASS IF WE WERE
NEEDING TO MAKE A DECISION TODAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WE SEE A SERIES OF WAVES
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE, BRINGING US BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A
WHILE. RIGHT NOW THINGS LOOK A BIT MESSY WITH PERHAPS A SOUTHERN
STREAM AND A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SAID WAVES
AND RESULTING CONVECTION. NBM CONTINUES WITH IT'S BROADBRUSH
AREA OF MEDIUM TO HIGH POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS WAS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY, NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE AREAL EXTENT
OF HIGH POPS BUT THIS FAR OUT. A BROADBRUSH APPROACH SEEMS
JUSTIFIED.
TEMPERATURES DO DROP A LITTLE AFTER WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARM-UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. WITH SMOKE LINGERING, LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES, BUT WILL KEEP P6SM FOR
NOW. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION AT ANY
TAF SITE ATTIM, BUT ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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