763
FXUS63 KBIS 140844
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION ENDING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT, THEN MAINLY DRY LATE FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. THE EXCEPTION BEING SOME 60S
NORTHWEST AND SOME LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND THROUGH A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC, COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL (925-850 MB) MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NORTHWEST ND FROM THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG 850MB FG
FORCING FROM NORTHEAST MT EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS FAR
EAST AS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE,
THERE HAS BEEN COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER NORTHEAST MT INTO
NORTHWEST MT, WITH THUNDER RECENTLY REPORTED AT CROSBY.
FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED AS FAR AS THE OVERALL FORECAST.
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IS STILL THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE NAEFS SA PAGE IS STILL PINPOINTING THE
NORTHWEST WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS, BUT HIGH PWATS ALSO EXTEND
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO, AND EVEN EXTEND INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ND BY AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF SA PAGE
INDICATES INCREASED EFI VALUES OVER FAR NORTHWEST ND. ALTHOUGH
THE MAX HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, HIGH VALUES OF 80 TO
90 PERCENT HAVE EXPANDED EAST, AND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH (JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA) AND THE SHIFT OF TAILS OF 2 HAS ALSO
SHIFTED FARTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND. LOOKING AT THE HREF
AND REFS, BOTH ARE INDICATING THE SAME GENERAL AREA (NORTHWEST
ND) FOR HIGHEST QPF TODAY, WITH THE HREF INCREASING MAX QPF
WHILE THE SPC REFS BACKS OFF A BIT. OVERALL THOUGH, THE AREAL
EXTENTS ARE VERY SIMILAR. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
NORTHWEST BEING THE BULLSEYE FOR HEAVY QPF, WITH THE AREAL
EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (OVER AN INCH) EXTENDING
FROM THE WEST CENTRAL INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL (MCKENZIE COUNTY
INTO WESTERN BOTTINEAU COUNTY) WHICH WASN'T MUCH OF A CHANGE
FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF MORE OF AN EASTWARD EXTENT IN THE
QPF, FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS GREAT HERE. THE NBM DOES SHOW THAT THE 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER INCH OF QPF (THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY) HAS
EXPANDED FARTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ND (FROM BOWMAN COUNTY 24
HOURS AGO, TO THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM THE LATEST RUN THIS
MORNING). THE MOISTURE HAS CERTAINLY INCREASED HERE, HOWEVER THE
FORCING REMAIN STRONGEST FROM WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND.
PERHAPS QPF FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND TODAY MAY BE
MORE HIT AND MISS THAN POINTS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.
OVERALL, MESSAGING HAS NOT CHANGED. THE CONFIDENCE IN A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS PRETTY LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY FOR VERY HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH CONVECTION. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME
ISSUES WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FOR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND THOSE AREAS NORMALLY PRONE TO FLOODING.
WE DID LOWER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
WESTERN ND GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF THE CLOUDY AND RAINY
CONDITIONS.
AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY OVER
CENTRAL ND, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY UNTIL
PERHAPS SUNDAY EVENING. BUT FOR THE MOST PART WE EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WARMUP ON MONDAY WITH SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS
POSSIBLY RETURNING, BEFORE A NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE
SEE TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH HIT AND MISS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROMOTE LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KXWA, KMOT, AND KDIK. HAVE LEFT
MENTIONS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT OF ALL SITES, AS
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED, THUS
LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KBIS AND KJMS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHEASTERN AND STRENGTHENING FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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