349
FXUS63 KBIS 141954
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
254 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY. A NEAR DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM
(20 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WORK
WEEK.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, A BRIEF WARMING
PERIOD MONDAY, THEN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS, WITH HIGH OVER EASTERN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TO THE WEST, TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVER OUR AREA, BROAD AREA OF RAINFALL CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BROAD AREA OF
RAIN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST. TOWARDS THE BACKSIDE WHERE RAIN HAD
TAPERED OFF OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING, SOME OF WHICH
IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. OVER OUR
AREA, THIS IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR
ADVERTISED ON THE RAP OF CAPE VALUES PUSHING AROUND 1500 J/KG.
SO, CANT RULE OUT A STRONGER CELL PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL OVER
THIS AREA, BUT BELIEVE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
THE AREA. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE WAS SOME
CONCERN FOR FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST, BUT BELIEVE THIS
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, BUT
DO EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY A FEW PATCHES OF
FOG PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE
STARTS TO REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE. FLOW REMAINS
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY, BUT A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MONDAY BEFORE A STRONG
SHORT WAVE AND AFFILIATED COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA, WHICH
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MEDIUM CHANCES (ABOUT 40 TO
60 PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LOW
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BEFORE CLEARING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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