944
FXUS63 KBIS 150854
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
354 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING.
- MAINLY DRY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH LOW CHANCES (20-30%)
FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) CHANCES FOR RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
WARM UP ON MONDAY. COOLER TUESDAY AN WEDNESDAY, THEN WARMING
LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. BACK TO THE WEST, A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS BRINGING
LOW STRATUS INTO WESTERN ND.
FOR TODAY, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AREA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID MORNING, IF NOT SOONER.
THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN FREE. HOWEVER A
SPRINKLE OR BRIEF SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TODAY WITH SOME
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY NORTH.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY MAY NOT SEE MUCH OF THE SUN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL
ALSO BE BREEZY LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL ND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S.
A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED ON SUNDAY. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST DURING THE DAY, WE SEE RETURN
FLOW INTO WESTERN ND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO IMPEDE UPON THE STATE AS IT WORKS ITS
WAY THROUGH A MEAN WESTERN UPPER RIDGE. BULK SHEAR IS INITIALLY
MODEST SUNDAY BUT INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS
OR SO, IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL OR
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. CURRENTLY THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) JUST TO THE SOUTH, IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING MODEL DOES BRING A LOW
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL A BIT FARTHER NORTH, INTO SOUTHWEST ND.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG
BUT INSTABILITY IS MODEST AT BEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LOW.
WE SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE
HIGH COULD REACH THE MID 80S. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, ROTATING AROUND A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER WEDNESDAY, THE
HUDSON BAY LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD
BRING A WARMING TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUING, A
LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS, MOVING EASTWARD. NO VCTS WILL BE
NEEDED AT KBIS TO BEGIN THE 06Z TAF PERIOD THOUGH. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD STILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS IN
THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF KBIS, BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KBIS AND KJMS. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH IFR AND
OCCASIONAL LIFR OVER KXWA AND KMOT. FOG MAY ALSO REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AT LEAST IFR LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG SHOULD LIFT AND/OR SCATTER BY AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS ON SATURDAY,
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
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