515
FXUS63 KBIS 161930
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- NEAR DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) FOR HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD ACROSS CENTRAL HALF OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA PRODUCING SHOWERS. THIS WAVE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF
INITIATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTH WEST AS THERE IS DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35
KTS AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN EASTERN MONTANA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS SOME MODEST CAP STORMS WILL HAVE
TO OVERCOME INTO ORDER TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. INCREASING CLOUDS
COVERAGE DOWNSTREAM MAY HELP TO KEEP THE CAP FROM ERODING THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CAMS KEEP STORMS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FRONT WILL
PROGRESS WITH WAVE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 50S.
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 80S AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THERE IS
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE EXTENDING INTO THE VERY SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
BE LIKELY EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA KEEPING CONVECTION
EAST OF US. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WAVE COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY BRINGING FORTH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE WEEK TAPERING OFF BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WARMER WEATHER. THIS RIDGE COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
OF -SHRA AND -TSRA TO KXWA AND KDIK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND KBIS LATE TONIGHT. KBIS PRECIPITATION IS A BIT ON THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE SIDE, BUT THE PROBS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN A
PROB 30 GROUP. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SWITCHING TO
NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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