449
FXUS63 KBIS 191929
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
229 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
LOW, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
- MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CURRENTLY, WEST CONUS RIDGE MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE STATE. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 83, A LACK OF ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK VERY LOW. STILL, A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A FAIRLY STABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATER THIS
WEEKEND. WHEN THIS HAPPENS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE
TEMPERATURES WIND UP WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST (MONDAY
SEEMS FAVORED AT THIS TIME). HOWEVER, DETERMINISTICS ARE ALSO
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER CANADIAN LOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK
THE RIDGE BACK DOWN.
TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, LOW PREDICTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFTEN POSSIBLE UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE COULD
BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
THAT IS WHEN FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES RELATIVELY BRIEFLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN MODEST WAA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER WHICH, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MAY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY NEITHER CSU
NOR SPC ARE OUTLOOKING SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
THAT COULD PRODUCE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THAT SAID, A LOT
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS.
ONE FINAL NOTE IS THAT SMOKE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. BASED ON MODEL DATA
AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, IMPACTS FROM NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE SEEM
UNLIKELY. AND IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS,
THEY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MILKY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE CLEARING OFF
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SMOKE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
FOR THE MOST PART, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SPATIAL
COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED. THEREFORE, LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
TIME. A LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE MAY ENTER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING, THOUGH VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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