215
FXUS63 KBIS 200606
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
106 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
- MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED WELL OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
2 DIFFERENT PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA: ONE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO 500 MB CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY AND
ANOTHER FROM AROUND STEELE TO LINTON IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE NORTHERN SHOWERS ARE UNLIKELY TO
DEVELOP FURTHER AND MAY NOT LAST FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS.
BUT THE SOUTHERN SHOWERS COULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, MOVING THROUGH A RELATIVELY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 500 MB SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE GROWTH HOWEVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. THERE IS A CHANCE STORMS SKIM FOSTER COUNTY IN THE NEXT
HOUR. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOSTLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NOW. NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION CONTINUES TO LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG THE FRONT AND
SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CURRENTLY, WEST CONUS RIDGE MAINTAINS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE STATE. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF SKINNY CAPE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 83, A LACK OF ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK VERY LOW. STILL, A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A FAIRLY STABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATER THIS
WEEKEND. WHEN THIS HAPPENS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DAY OR TWO WHERE
TEMPERATURES WIND UP WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST (MONDAY
SEEMS FAVORED AT THIS TIME). HOWEVER, DETERMINISTICS ARE ALSO
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER CANADIAN LOW WILL QUICKLY BREAK
THE RIDGE BACK DOWN.
TURNING BACK TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, LOW PREDICTABILITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFTEN POSSIBLE UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE COULD
BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST.
THAT IS WHEN FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES RELATIVELY BRIEFLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN MODEST WAA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER WHICH, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MAY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY NEITHER CSU
NOR SPC ARE OUTLOOKING SEVERE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
THAT COULD PRODUCE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THAT SAID, A LOT
OF IT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF ANY FORCING MECHANISMS.
ONE FINAL NOTE IS THAT SMOKE IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. BASED ON MODEL DATA
AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, IMPACTS FROM NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE SEEM
UNLIKELY. AND IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS,
THEY SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MILKY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE CLEARING OFF
TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED SMOKE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT, WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ANTICIPATED.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT KJMS TO
BEGIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD, ENDING AFTER 09Z. ON THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10-15 KTS, GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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