455
FXUS63 KBIS 222341
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OVER THE
AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY, FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, WHILE A LOW IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH RIDGE RUNNING
NORTHWARD GENERALLY TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OVER OUR AREA,
LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH ARE BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING LOW.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON THE INCREASE, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN AREAS.
ON SUNDAY, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES. OF NOTE WILL BE INCREASING INSTABILITY VALUES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
NOTING CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MARGINAL AND ALSO POSSIBLY CAPPED
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE LIMITED HEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL.
AS WE GET INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM THREAT PUSHES
IN FROM MONTANA LATE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH,
AGAIN POSING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. CHANCES THEN SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
SLIDE EASTERLY. AGAIN, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO PRIMARILY CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH MARGINAL SHEAR, BUT THEN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM COMES
INTO PLAY. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE MARGINAL
THREAT.
ON TUESDAY, WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT A VERY COMPACT
SHORT WAVE/LOW SLIDES DOWN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE, BUT AT THIS
POINT ONLY LOOKS TO GRAZE OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE,
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AND DRY, THOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE MAINLY AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS.
RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY CREEPS EAST AND REMAINS THE DOMINATING
FACTOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH A FEW WAVES PUSHING THROUGH DO
BRING OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE PRESENT AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY. HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FOR WESTERN
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
CONSISTENT AT ALL IN REGARD TO LOCATION OR TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SEEM TO FAVOR WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY TIME. HOWEVER,
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENTLY
IMPACTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ARE FAVORED SUNDAY EVENING AFTER
THE PERIOD, BUT WOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF A FEW DIDN'T
OCCUR EARLIER DURING THE AFTERNOON ANYWAYS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TELKEN
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