094
FXUS63 KBIS 230629
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. IT IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT LEAST UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A QUIET EVENING CONTINUES AND THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, WHILE A LOW IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH RIDGE RUNNING
NORTHWARD GENERALLY TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OVER OUR AREA,
LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVER MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH ARE BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEVELOPING LOW.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON THE INCREASE, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN AREAS.
ON SUNDAY, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES. OF NOTE WILL BE INCREASING INSTABILITY VALUES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
NOTING CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR MARGINAL AND ALSO POSSIBLY CAPPED
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE LIMITED HEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THEREFORE, WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL AT THIS POINT
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL.
AS WE GET INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM THREAT PUSHES
IN FROM MONTANA LATE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH,
AGAIN POSING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. CHANCES THEN SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
SLIDE EASTERLY. AGAIN, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO PRIMARILY CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH MARGINAL SHEAR, BUT THEN TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM COMES
INTO PLAY. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE MARGINAL
THREAT.
ON TUESDAY, WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT A VERY COMPACT
SHORT WAVE/LOW SLIDES DOWN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE, BUT AT THIS
POINT ONLY LOOKS TO GRAZE OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. THEREFORE,
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AND DRY, THOUGH SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE MAINLY AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS.
RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY CREEPS EAST AND REMAINS THE DOMINATING
FACTOR KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH A FEW WAVES PUSHING THROUGH DO
BRING OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IF A
STORM MOVES OVER A TERMINAL, IFR VISIBILITY AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH LARGE HAIL AND MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OR RE-ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KTS FROM SUNDAY MORNING
ONWARD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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