685
FXUS63 KBIS 231952
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH, BUT STILL SOME
QUESTION IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY, AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING, WITH HIGH OVER THE
MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. OVER OUR AREA, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLID THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFFILIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOTED IN THE
FLOW.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, A TRICKY
FORECAST IS ON TAP AS SOME VARIABLE REMAIN IN PLAY. IT HAS BEEN
WELL ADVERTISED THAT WITH THE RETURNING MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG ALREADY AT THIS TIME OVER A BROAD PART OF THE AREA,
AND THAT PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN IN PLACE (40-50 KTS
0-6KM) TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WITH THAT SAID, THE FLIES
IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUE TO BE RATHER MODEST FORCING, ALONG WITH
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWING A CAP THAT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VARIETY
OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/A FEW WEAK STORMS
TO A VARIETY OF SEVERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL,
POSSIBLE NUDGING NORTHWARD. SO, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
CONDITIONAL, BUT IF A STORM OR STORMS WERE ABLE TO GET GOING IN
EARNEST, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN A CONCERN
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR/INSTABILITY. A SECONDARY WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM MONTANA LATER TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS, WHICH WOULD MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST PUSHES OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN THE MORNING, INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE STALLING
MID-DAY. BEHIND THE TROUGH, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR WEST. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
MOIST AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. CAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED
OVER THIS AREA, ALONG WITH SIMILAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS TODAY.
AGAIN, THOUGH, THE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL AS TO WHETHER
ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE IN ORDER FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ON TUESDAY, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS RE-
FOCUSES OVER THE ROCKIES, THOUGH A COMPACT LOW/SHORT WAVE WILL
ZIP THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH MANITOBA INTO
ONTARIO. UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MEANDERS EAST RESULTING IN QUIET
WEATHER FOR US THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE, BRINGING SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SOME STORMS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS AGAIN ENTERING FROM MONTANA, PUSHING EAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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