564
FXUS63 KBIS 242046
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KEY POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH LOW
TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TUESDAY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA BORDER, WITH TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE HIGH IS OVER THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGE STRETCHING TO
THE NORTH, BUT TOP OF RIDGE IS BEING BUSTED DOWN BY A COMPACT
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING TO
THE EAST. OVER OUR AREA, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH, RIGHT NOW PASSING GENERALLY OVER AND
JUST EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AHEAD
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MEANDER EAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH, DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE, COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE, NEAR CRITICAL WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED.
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KTS, PLENTY FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE QUESTION IS AT
WHAT POINT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST WILL STORMS DEVELOP, GIVEN
THE FORCING IS NOT THE STRONGEST AND THERE IS SOME CAPPING TO
DEAL WITH. GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED SOME BETWEEN THE 5-7 PM CDT
HOURS, BUT THE LATER IT GOES THE FURTHER EAST THE INITIATION IS
EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID, ONCE INITIATION DOES OCCUR, EXPECT ANY
STORM TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY, WITH DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. WITH
THAT ALL SAID, STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST,
WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN SETTING IN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RE-FOCUSES OVER THE ROCKIES, THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT
LOW/SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY MEANDERS EAST RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER FOR US
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED,
BRINGING SOME LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS WERE DOMINATING MUCH OF
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW DISSIPATING SHOWERS
MOVING ALONG WITH IT. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST, SURFACE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
COVERAGE, ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A PROB30 AT KJMS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END AFTER 04Z.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA, THROUGH PROBS REMAIN A BIT TOO LOW FOR A PROB30 MENTION
AT KXWA AND KMOT AT THIS TIME.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...BC
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