845
FXUS63 KBIS 250223
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
BY MIDNIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH LOW
TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD RETURN TUESDAY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
STORMS PERSIST IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING
LOGAN, MCINTOSH, LAMOURE, AND DICKEY COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE
STEADILY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. GROUND TRUTH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO COME BY,
THOUGH A 77 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED 5 MILES WEST OF WISHEK AT 839
PM CDT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY,
UNTIL 1 AM CDT, THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT TO THE EAST OF
THE BISMARCK WFOS COUNTY WARNING AREA A FEW HOURS PRIOR.
CURRENTLY, A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
KIDDER, FOSTER, AND STUTSMAN COUNTIES AND ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING, WHICH WOULD THEN FAVOR MORE OF
A WIND THREAT. STORM COVERAGE MAY ALSO EXPAND BOTH FURTHER TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA BORDER, WITH TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE HIGH IS OVER THE MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO WITH RIDGE STRETCHING TO
THE NORTH, BUT TOP OF RIDGE IS BEING BUSTED DOWN BY A COMPACT
LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WHICH IS GRADUALLY MEANDERING TO
THE EAST. OVER OUR AREA, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH, RIGHT NOW PASSING GENERALLY OVER AND
JUST EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR, WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AHEAD
AND DRIER AIR BEHIND.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MEANDER EAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH, DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY NOTED OVER SOUTHWEST INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE, COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE, NEAR CRITICAL WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED.
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, ELEVATED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG, AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KTS, PLENTY FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE QUESTION IS AT
WHAT POINT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST WILL STORMS DEVELOP, GIVEN
THE FORCING IS NOT THE STRONGEST AND THERE IS SOME CAPPING TO
DEAL WITH. GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED SOME BETWEEN THE 5-7 PM CDT
HOURS, BUT THE LATER IT GOES THE FURTHER EAST THE INITIATION IS
EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID, ONCE INITIATION DOES OCCUR, EXPECT ANY
STORM TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY, WITH DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY. WITH
THAT ALL SAID, STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST,
WITH QUIET WEATHER THEN SETTING IN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE AXIS
RE-FOCUSES OVER THE ROCKIES, THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT
LOW/SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY MEANDERS EAST RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER FOR US
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED,
BRINGING SOME LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO END THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KJMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
STRONG ERRATIC WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ONCE STORMS MOVE EAST OF KJMS, VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TELKEN
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