191
FXUS63 KBIS 252044
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
344 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH/FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
MINNESOTA, WITH HIGH OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
STRETCHING INTO MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER, WITH HIGH OVER NEW
MEXICO AND RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OVER OUR AREA, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE SYSTEMS, WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CLOUDS PASS THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
FOR THIS EVENING, A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP AS UPPER LOW PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO SETTLE IN.
ON WEDNESDAY, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
MEANDERING A BIT TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING OVER,
RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE MILDER
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION START TO ENTER THE FORECAST FRIDAY AS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MEANDER EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, WHICH IS ALSO BACKED
BY NSSL & CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERALLY WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH
A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MINIMAL IMPACT POTENTIAL THIS TAF PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHWEST TO WEST, IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AT KMOT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...TL/FGF
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