837
FXUS63 KBIS 260237
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN AS DIURNAL HEATING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROUGH/FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
MINNESOTA, WITH HIGH OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER
STRETCHING INTO MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER, WITH HIGH OVER NEW
MEXICO AND RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
OVER OUR AREA, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE SYSTEMS, WHILE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CLOUDS PASS THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
FOR THIS EVENING, A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP AS UPPER LOW PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO SETTLE IN.
ON WEDNESDAY, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
MEANDERING A BIT TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PASSING OVER,
RESULTING IN A PLEASANT DAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE MILDER
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION START TO ENTER THE FORECAST FRIDAY AS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO MEANDER EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASED INSTABILITY, WHICH IS ALSO BACKED
BY NSSL & CSU MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERALLY WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH
A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH WIND GUSTS DYING OUT AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS COULD PICK UP IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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