767
FXUS63 KBIS 081151
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, A NOTABLE BUT BRIEF
WARM UP FOR THURSDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
BY THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND WINDS STARING TO
INCREASE OVER THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN,
WITH TROUGH DROPPING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES LOW STACKED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A FEW VERY WEAK SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON
THE INCREASE BEHIND THE TROUGH.
FOR TODAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE
THIS MORNING AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES TO THE EAST, PASSING
OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AROUND MID-DAY, AND OVER THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER BY EVENING. TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BEST MIXING
DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 WHERE GUSTS TO 55 ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH EVEN ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH IT WILL BE WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. ALONG
WITH THE GENERAL CONCERNS THAT COME WITH WIND, MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME
UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES. THEREFORE,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH, HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME A
NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WILL WILL SWING THROUGH IN THE FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW PUSHING INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OUR OUR AREA IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MOVING EASTERLY, AND POSSIBLY A FEW
MODEST THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ON.
QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MODEST
RIDGING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING NOTABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A
FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 90. IN ADDITION, NOTABLY DRIER AIR
MOVES IN RESULTING IN QUITE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN AN EXPECTED WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. THIS ALSO WILL USHER IN NOTABLY COOLER AIR, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
LOW STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AFFECTING
THE KXWA TERMINAL, THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID
DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH WILL STILL BE
WINDY, WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-055>059.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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