823
FXUS63 KBIS 081949
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST AND PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS LIKELY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TONIGHT, WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY ALONG, SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, A NOTABLE BUT BRIEF WARM UP
FOR THURSDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGEST WINDS NORTH AND CENTRAL. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AFTER AROUND 4 PM.
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER GUSTS 4 PM.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING, THEN TRACK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAKER
WAVE THAT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. BETTER CHANCES TONIGHT WILL DEFINITELY BE
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MOST SEEING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, MAINLY WESTERLY 15 TO 25
MPH WITH SOME GUST TO 30-35 MPH SOUTH CENTRAL.
ANOTHER CANADIAN CYCLONE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WE ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE A BRIEF BUT NOTICEABLE WARM-UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND, WITH UPPER 80S FORECAST IN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND. IT MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND WE
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS WELL. TEMPERATURE WISE, FRIDAY
WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTHWEST, WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, TO THE MID 80S
IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY, WHICH MAY NOT SEE THE FRONT
MOVE THROUGH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN MOSTLY
IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME UPPER 50 DEGREE
READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST THROUGH MANITOBA. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE NORTH.
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT KXWA, AND SHOWERS AT
KMOT. FOR NOW, KEPT THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME LOWER
CEILINGS WITH A MVFR CEILING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP A BIT AROUND MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL
REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER A PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH POSSIBLY
SOME UPPER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF BOWMAN AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
THEREFORE, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE NORTH,
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ND. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND DURING
THIS TIME. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WHILE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, EXCEPT MID 40S
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-025-031>033-055>059.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
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