146
FXUS63 KBIS 091006
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
506 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY ALONG, SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE
MISSOURI RIVER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
- NEAR TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY, A NOTABLE BUT
BRIEF WARM UP FOR THURSDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO,
WITH HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NUDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO,
WITH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW NOW PASSING OVER MANITOBA INTO THE
DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHICH ARE
MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST.
FOR TODAY, A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND YESTERDAY'S
SYSTEM WILL BRING NEAR TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA, WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY.
ON THURSDAY, UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA PUSHES
SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH UPPER RIDGE PUSHING OVER INTO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER
MOST LOCATIONS, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
WITH THE EASTERLY PUSHING UPPER TROUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, BEFORE A PACIFIC LOW QUICKLY MOVES ONSHORE AND PUSHES
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY MEANDERS EASTERLY. EXACT PLACEMENT OF
SOME OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THIS GENERAL
PATTERN DOES RESULT IN ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER OUR
AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE MVFR
VISIBILITY. A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, BUT CEILINGS WITH THIS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, WITH
OCCASIONAL MINIMAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ND. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND DURING
THIS TIME. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WHILE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH. DUE TO THE LOW HUMIDITY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, EXCEPT MID 40S
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
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