066
FXUS63 KBIS 101107
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
607 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
- A NOTABLE BUT BRIEF WARM UP TODAY, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN,
WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSING TROUGH OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. OVER OUR AREA, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER
INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS ARE ADDRESSED IN A "FIRE
WEATHER" SECTION BELOW.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. WITH THE EASTERLY PUSHING UPPER TROUGH, A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, BEFORE A PACIFIC LOW QUICKLY MOVES ONSHORE AND PUSHES
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE RETURNS
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH ADDITIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS, DECREASING THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA, THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SURROUND THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA AND INCLUDE MOST AREAS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP AS LOW AS
13 PERCENT, WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. IN THE NEAR CRITICAL AREA SURROUNDING THE RED
FLAG WARNING, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER, WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT. AREAS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID
20S TO MID 30S, EXCEPT LOWER MID 40S AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...JJS
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