219
FXUS63 KBIS 101743
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
- A NOTABLE BUT BRIEF WARM UP TODAY, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
S/WV MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST, REPLACED WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION, OTHERWISE A QUIET DAY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. RED FLAG CONTINUES WEST, WITH NO CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST ITERATION. RH VALUES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S SOUTHWEST, ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25
MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED. CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA, WITH
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN,
WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSING TROUGH OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. OVER OUR AREA, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER
INTO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS ARE ADDRESSED IN A "FIRE
WEATHER" SECTION BELOW.
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. WITH THE EASTERLY PUSHING UPPER TROUGH, A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, BEFORE A PACIFIC LOW QUICKLY MOVES ONSHORE AND PUSHES
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EASTERLY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GUIDANCE RETURNS
DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH THE SYSTEM LIFTING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH ADDITIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN FOR MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS, DECREASING THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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