042
FXUS63 KBIS 102022
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING THIS EVENING FOR MUCH
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA.
- A NOTABLE BUT BRIEF WARM UP TODAY, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (60 TO 80%) RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH LOW CHANCES BEFORE AND AFTER
THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CURRENTLY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK S/WV RIDGE AND
A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY TO
OUR WEST. THIS SURFACE PATTERN RESULTS IN A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, ALLOWING FOR VERY DRY
AIR TO ADVECT INTO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WHERE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS REPORT PERCENT RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND STEADY SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED TO AT LEAST 15 KNOTS (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW).
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES EAST TONIGHT, AND WILL
DRIVE THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AM. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FROPA,
AND WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING PERSISTING. FRI AFT TEMPERATURES
DROP 10-20 DEGREES FROM TODAY, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ZONAL
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT/FRI,
WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO
NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY.
WE REMAIN IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH SAT NIGHT, ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SAGGING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
THIS RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER/WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S (30S ARE A SAFE BET FOR LOWER LYING
AREAS). FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LOW DEVELOPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SAT/SAT NIGHT, WHICH FURTHER DEVELOPS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, COUPLED WITH AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ELEVATED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO OUR AREA, WITH FORECAST QPF RANGING FROM 0.5 - 1 INCH
SUN EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD, SO PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER THOUGH WITH
CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE LOW.
THEREAFTER, MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS FAVORED TO BE IN A
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL
MODERATION/WARMING OF TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS, DECREASING THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS BORDERING THIS AREA. THUS, THE RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND 15 PERCENT, WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST
WIND THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE NORTH AND EAST, AND
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY TO MID EVENING TOWARDS
SUNSET AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES START TO RECOVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TOMORROW, THOUGH RH
VALUES WILL TREND HIGHER, FORECAST TO MAINLY BE OVER 30 PERCENT
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE WIND THOUGH, NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS
SOUTHWEST AND PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>045.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...NH
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