904
FXUS63 KBIS 111826
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
126 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH CHANCES (60-90%) FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- WINDY WEEKEND, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE MOSTLY DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW, WITH A
SMALL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED OVER MONTANA CURRENTLY. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM SITS NEAR VANCOUVER. AT THE SURFACE THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT HAS NOW MADE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA, SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ARE ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SITS IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE WINDS ARE
GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH. THAT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS CREATED A
NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS LAID ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA, ON AN
EASTERN TRACK. THE NBM HAS VERY LITTLE POPS FOR THESE SHOWERS IN
NORTH DAKOTA, SO WE HAD TO MANUALLY ADD THOSE IN. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING.
AS THIS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, THE BELOW NORMAL
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TOO. TONIGHT EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S
AGAIN, THEN HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA, PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH ARE FORECAST.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE
INTO MONTANA, CREATING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL CREATE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES INTO
THE DAKOTAS, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH THIS SURFACE PRESSURE, ANOTHER STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL OCCUR. SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WINDIER WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT
NBM FORECAST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE 30 TO 50MPH, LOWER EAST.
WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY OR
WARNING. THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPERATURES TO COME BACK NORTH, WARMING OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE MID 70S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS TODAY WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20KTS, INCREASING IN THE NORTH AND EAST
SATURDAY TO 15 TO 30KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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