547
FXUS63 KBIS 131023
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
523 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS (70-100%) LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GREATEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
- BECOMING WINDY TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 50 TO 60
MPH POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH
LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO/NORTHERN UTAH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE COMPACT RIDGE NOTED AHEAD OF THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN WYOMING INTO MONTANA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING
THROUGH IS RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TODAY, AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER, A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. IN THE
MEANTIME, SURFACE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD OVER WYOMING/SOUTHERN
MONTANA RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, RAIN DEVELOPS AND SPREADS OVER OUR
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
THEN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHILE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEAST MONTANA BEFORE SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS IS A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY THAN WE SAW
TRENDS HEADING TOWARDS YESTERDAY, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST NBM FORECAST FOR 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL OR GREATER, WHICH
NOW HAS THE 50% OR GREATER AREA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
ELGIN TO BEULAH TO WATFORD CITY, WITH AREAS AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS HAVING A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER AN INCH.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS, WINDS WILL SHIFT
WESTERLY AND INCREASE. THE CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON
MONDAY HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE, AS THE LATEST ECMWF EFI
NOW HAS BUMPED UP TO 0.9 OVER A BROAD SWATH OF WESTERN INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AN INCREASE OF 0.1 TO 0.2 FROM
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE TO TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS, WITH POSSIBLE WIND
HEADLINES BEING ISSUED.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH LOOK
TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. OTHER THAN THE WINDS, A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, A PATTERN SETS UP WITH A VARIETY OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH, BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW TO MEDIUM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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