729
FXUS63 KBIS 131354
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS (70-100%) LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. GREATEST CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.
- BECOMING WINDY TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS AROUND 50 TO 60
MPH POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWER CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
LAST REMAINING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE CROSSED OVER INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE
TODAY, LEADING TO A QUIET WEATHER DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ISOLATED MORNING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAVE BEEN A BIT RELUCTANT TO
DISSIPATE SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, HAVE STRETCHED
OUT LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH
LOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO/NORTHERN UTAH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE COMPACT RIDGE NOTED AHEAD OF THE LOW
OVER NORTHERN WYOMING INTO MONTANA. AN UPPER LEVEL JET PASSING
THROUGH IS RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR TODAY, AFOREMENTIONED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER, A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED AS RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA. IN THE
MEANTIME, SURFACE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD OVER WYOMING/SOUTHERN
MONTANA RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, RAIN DEVELOPS AND SPREADS OVER OUR
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
THEN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WHILE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHEAST MONTANA BEFORE SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. THIS IS A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY THAN WE SAW
TRENDS HEADING TOWARDS YESTERDAY, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST NBM FORECAST FOR 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL OR GREATER, WHICH
NOW HAS THE 50% OR GREATER AREA NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
ELGIN TO BEULAH TO WATFORD CITY, WITH AREAS AROUND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS HAVING A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER AN INCH.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS, WINDS WILL SHIFT
WESTERLY AND INCREASE. THE CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON
MONDAY HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE, AS THE LATEST ECMWF EFI
NOW HAS BUMPED UP TO 0.9 OVER A BROAD SWATH OF WESTERN INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, AN INCREASE OF 0.1 TO 0.2 FROM
YESTERDAY. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE TO TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY TO MAKE SURE THIS TREND STICKS, WITH POSSIBLE WIND
HEADLINES BEING ISSUED.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH LOOK
TO REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. OTHER THAN THE WINDS, A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, A PATTERN SETS UP WITH A VARIETY OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH, BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW TO MEDIUM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z, WITH NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SEEING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AFTER 09Z.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS/KJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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