142
FXUS63 KBIS 141007
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
507 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE (ABOUT 70 TO 100 PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND A FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL GUST TO 60
MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND AROUND 50-55 MPH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNING, WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE ENDING PRECIPITATION AND THE INCREASING GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP LOW ALONG THE BORDER OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA, WITH HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN ALBERTA
AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. OVER OUR AREA, A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES
LIFTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AREA CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NOW SPREADING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW.
FOR TODAY, UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTERLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO FILL IN
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONS
NORTHWARD, CROSSING THE INTERSECTION OF THE MONTANA, NORTH
DAKOTA, AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDERS AROUND MID-DAY. AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES IN, WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE WIND SWITCH, BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE MORNING OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, AND THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMPLE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOWN ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 60
MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ARGUMENT FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ECMWF-EFI
WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTANT WITH VALUES OF 0.9 AND ABOVE IN THIS
AREA, AND EVEN SHOWING SOME 0.95 WITH THE LATEST RUN, READINGS
WHICH HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN IN LINE WITH HIGH WIND WARNING
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT, THOUGH, MAY BE THE
RATHER MODEST AT BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION, BUT STILL THINK THE
STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING GENERALLY FROM HETTINGER TO DICKINSON TO
MINOT AND POINTS WESTWARD. FURTHER EAST, WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55
MPH ARE EXPECTED, BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE STARTING TO BACK OFF. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD MCINTOSH AND
DICKEY COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGHER
WINDS SPREADING FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
A CONCERN THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH WINDS AND THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS FIRE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DIP INTO
THE 30S, POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST, WHICH
MAY DRY OUT FUELS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. FOR
NOW, WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OUR FAR SOUTHWEST TO SEE IF A
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF ONLY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
FALLS.
SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, WITH
SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF THROUGH HE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
ON WEDNESDAY A RATHER STRONG BY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. MODEST WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHEN AND
WHERE SHOWERS ARE MOST PERSISTANT, MOSTLY DURING MONDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS SHOWERS
CEASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS, WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
TURNING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOMING
STRONG WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 35 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 45
KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>003-009-010-017>019-031>033-
040-041-043-044-055>057.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
/11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ020-042-058>062.
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS
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