441
FXUS63 KBIS 141718
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE (ABOUT 70 TO 100 PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND A FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL GUST TO 60
MPH OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND AROUND 50-55 MPH OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WESTERN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH
WIND WARNING, WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE ENDING PRECIPITATION AND THE INCREASING GUSTY WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE STATE AND WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING EASTERLY AND
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE HAS STARTED TO BREAK IN CLOUD
COVER AND FROM THE RAIN. EXPECT WIND GUSTS INCREASING IN THE
NEXT HOUR, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
RADAR SHOWS SOME CLEARING WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK, BUT
THAT WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THERE WILL SEVERAL POP UP SHOWERS
FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SO FAR, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SEVERAL
LOCALES FAIRED BETTER, SUCH AS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION, WITH
AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES FROM EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST IS
STILL TRACK WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SHIFTING TO WEST BY THE MIDDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. GOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES DEEP LOW ALONG THE BORDER OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA, WITH HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN ALBERTA
AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. OVER OUR AREA, A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES
LIFTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW AREA CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NOW SPREADING THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW.
FOR TODAY, UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTERLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO FILL IN
EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONS
NORTHWARD, CROSSING THE INTERSECTION OF THE MONTANA, NORTH
DAKOTA, AND SASKATCHEWAN BORDERS AROUND MID-DAY. AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES IN, WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE WIND SWITCH, BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY DURING THE MORNING OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA, AND THE AFTERNOON CENTRAL. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMPLE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOWN ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 60
MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE ARGUMENT FOR STRONGER
WINDS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST ECMWF-EFI
WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTANT WITH VALUES OF 0.9 AND ABOVE IN THIS
AREA, AND EVEN SHOWING SOME 0.95 WITH THE LATEST RUN, READINGS
WHICH HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN IN LINE WITH HIGH WIND WARNING
WINDS DEVELOPING. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT, THOUGH, MAY BE THE
RATHER MODEST AT BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION, BUT STILL THINK THE
STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING GENERALLY FROM HETTINGER TO DICKINSON TO
MINOT AND POINTS WESTWARD. FURTHER EAST, WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55
MPH ARE EXPECTED, BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE STARTING TO BACK OFF. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD MCINTOSH AND
DICKEY COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGHER
WINDS SPREADING FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
A CONCERN THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH WINDS AND THE DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IS FIRE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DIP INTO
THE 30S, POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST, WHICH
MAY DRY OUT FUELS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS. FOR
NOW, WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OUR FAR SOUTHWEST TO SEE IF A
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF ONLY LITTLE PRECIPITATION
FALLS.
SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, WITH
SURFACE LOW SLIDING THROUGH ONTARIO. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF THROUGH HE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
ON WEDNESDAY A RATHER STRONG BY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. MODEST WARMING TREND
EXPECTED FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 21Z IN THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND AFTER 06Z FOR
THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER THE SHOWERS, STARTING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EXPANDING EAST AND NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY. GUSTS WILL
BE 40 TO 50 KNOTS FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE AND UP TO
40 KTS FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE. WINDS WILL REDUCE IN SPEED IN THE
LATE NIGHT BUT STILL GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>003-009-010-017>019-031>033-040-041-043-044-055>057.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ020-042-058>062.
UPDATE...JJS/KJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...KJS
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