443
FXUS63 KBIS 150310
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, AND AROUND 50-55 MPH OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
WESTERN AREAS HAVE A HIGH WIND WARNING AND A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND THE
INCREASING GUSTY WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL, BUT GUSTS CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST AND DECREASE ACROSS THE WEST. SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED AS DAY TIME HEATING HAS SUBSIDED. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. NO MAJOR UPDATES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES PASS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BRINGING FORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-60 MPH OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST, BUT DECREASE
A BIT AFTER SUNSET WHEN THE INVERSION SETS UP. THERE WILL STILL
BE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH
WILL LEAD TO HIGH WINDS AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT, BUT MIXING
COULD LIMIT THE UPPER THRESHOLD OF THE STRONG WINDS PUSHING
EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE LOW IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE AND IT HAS STARTED TO LIFT OUT INTO CANADA. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LINGER RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AS IT GETS WRAP AROUND THE LOW, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE AREA WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUD COVER AS THE FRONT PASSES BY. WINDS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON, THANKS TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND IT WILL BRING VERY STRONG GUSTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. 12Z HREF HAS LARGE SWATH OF 60-80%
PROBABILITIES OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER BEHIND THE FRONT, STARTING
FROM THE WEST AND MOVING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A
NARROW SWATH OF 20-50% PROBABILITIES OF 55 MPH, BUT IT MAINLY
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 82. AS RESULT, A HIGH WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND A WIND
ADVISORY FOR EVERYWHERE ELSE THROUGH THE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN BELOW WARNING AND ADVISORY BY THE LATE NIGHT.
ON TOP OF THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, DRY AIR HAS STARTED TO
FILTER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. IT IS
EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST 12Z MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS DRY SLOT LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
GOING FORWARD WITH THE REST OF WEEK, A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
OVER THE REGION, LEADING A CALMER DAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL STILL
BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, BUT LOWER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS POISED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE
AT THE PRESENT MOMENT. FOR NOW, CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT STRONG WINDS TO
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40KTS AND ISOLATED AREAS OUT WEST SEEING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50KTS. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KXWA AND
KMOT TONIGHT AS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND MAYBE WESTERN
TERMINALS AS A LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ001>003-009-010-017>019-031>033-040-041-043-044-055>057.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-
022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NDZ020-042-058>062.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...KJS
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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