158
FXUS63 KBIS 281854
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
CURRENTLY A VERY DEEP TROUGH IN NEVADA IS CAUSING SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
A RIDGE PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
WORKING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN TO ITS
EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM WEST TO EAST. ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE,
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN BETWEEN THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
ASHLEY, ND. FOR THIS REASON A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
UNTIL 3PM. WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS NOW IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE
LOW.
THIS EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST. MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE MUCAPE, LESS THAN 400 J/KG, THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THAT
STATIONARY FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES NORTH IN THE SURFACE
CYCLONIC FLOW. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE LATE MORNING.
THE REST OF THIS WEEK THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALLOWING ALL THIS RAIN THAT JUST FELL
TO DRY OUT. NO RAIN IS THEN IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THIS WEEKEND
WHEN AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SLIDES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL STAY NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AS THE ZONAL FLOW KEEPS THINGS STEADY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
IFR WITH RAIN IN THE EAST, TO VFR CIGS IN THE WEST. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THEN FOG COULD SPREAD
WEST TO EAST IN THE EARLY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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