906
FXUS63 KBIS 291139
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MAINLY DRY AND NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME PATCHY FROST COULD BE FOUND EACH MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SHOWERS WITH LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT IN INTENSITY AS THEY LOOSE SOME
OF THEIR CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES. GIVEN THESE LESSENED RAINFALL
RATES HAVE EXPIRED THE FLOOD WATCH AND ANY FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THERE STILL COULD BE POCKETS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. BEYOND THIS
MORNING THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MILD TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY WEST WINDS, AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. HIGH
PWAT VALUES OF AN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALSO HELP WITH HEAVY RAIN
THIS MORNING. THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TO
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF
DENSE FOG TO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS A RESULT TO AREAS ALREADY REPORTING FOG.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ONCE RAIN
MOVES OUT TODAY. AN INCREASED ZONAL FLOW GRADIENT ALOFT COULD
BRING SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20S COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO QUICK LINE UP FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THIS WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHILE A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS. LOOK FOR COOLER LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,
YET MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE STEADY WIND AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT. THIS WEAK FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS CONTINUING
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WITH
60S IN THE NORTH AND 70S IN THE SOUTH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE THEN ENTERS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING COOLER
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, AND POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE WORK WEEK COULD THEN BE INFLUENCED BY THIS SURFACE
HIGH BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A WEAK
BOUNDARY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS MAY ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN
THE 60S. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED FOR THIS WEEKEND, THUS POPS ARE
GENERALLY LOW. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, WHICH COULD PROVIDE PATCHY FROST EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING KJMS, THIS MORNING BRINGING MVFR
TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR THIS MORNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MOST SITES HAVE MENTION OF EITHER FOG
OR SHOWERS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY. CONDITIONS THEN
LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND TODAY THEN A STEADY
SOUTHWEST WIND TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009-010-012-013-017>020-022-023-033-035-036-041-042-
044-046-047-050-055>062.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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