992
FXUS63 KBIS 291755
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING.
- REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MAINLY DRY AND NEAR
NORMAL CONDITIONS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME PATCHY FROST COULD BE FOUND EACH MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FOG HAS LIFTED OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA AND LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO ERODE. WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SHOULD ONLY SEE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER OUR AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
HAVE EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY FOR A BROAD PORTION OF NORTH
CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS VISIBILITY
HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO IMPROVE. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT THAT BY
MID-DAY MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
DENSE FOG CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE, VISIBILITY HAS REALLY FLUCTUATED THROUGH
THE MORNING, SO WILL LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE
THROUGH 10 AM CDT. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED OUR AREA
SO HAVE REMOVED ALL RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SHOWERS WITH LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT IN INTENSITY AS THEY LOOSE SOME
OF THEIR CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES. GIVEN THESE LESSENED RAINFALL
RATES HAVE EXPIRED THE FLOOD WATCH AND ANY FLOOD ADVISORIES.
THERE STILL COULD BE POCKETS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THESE SHOWERS AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. BEYOND THIS
MORNING THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MILD TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY WEST WINDS, AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WITH
LIMITED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. HIGH
PWAT VALUES OF AN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL REMAIN WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE. SLOW STORM MOTION WILL ALSO HELP WITH HEAVY RAIN
THIS MORNING. THUS LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TO
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED ABUNDANT RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT AREAS OF
DENSE FOG TO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS A RESULT TO AREAS ALREADY REPORTING FOG.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, DRYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ONCE RAIN
MOVES OUT TODAY. AN INCREASED ZONAL FLOW GRADIENT ALOFT COULD
BRING SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME
LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20S COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO QUICK LINE UP FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THIS WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WHILE A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS. LOOK FOR COOLER LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,
YET MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE STEADY WIND AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT TONIGHT. THIS WEAK FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS CONTINUING
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WITH
60S IN THE NORTH AND 70S IN THE SOUTH. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE THEN ENTERS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING COOLER
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, AND POSSIBLY SOME
PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE WORK WEEK COULD THEN BE INFLUENCED BY THIS SURFACE
HIGH BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A WEAK
BOUNDARY BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS MAY ALSO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND IN
THE 60S. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED FOR THIS WEEKEND, THUS POPS ARE
GENERALLY LOW. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, WHICH COULD PROVIDE PATCHY FROST EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...JJS
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