455
FXUS63 KBIS 301913
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
213 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
- A FEW AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A LARGER AREA OF FROST MAY COME THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- AN OVERALL MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES MAY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA PASSES TO THE NORTH, VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG THE ND/ CANADA
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUIT OF THIS MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THE SYSTEM EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE TOMORROW IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. WITH THESE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS, THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS WITH FROST IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, COOL AIR
WILL REMAIN WITH LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL DIP LOWER THAN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE THIS FALL SEASON, IT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL.
BY FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL BRING BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND FROM EITHER OF
THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY, YET OVERALL
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SATURDAY MORNING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE PRESENT AS A
RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO THE 30S. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALSO BRING SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MILDER MORNING LOWS WOULD ALSO BE
FOUND WITH THIS PATTERN. AN INCREASED GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BE FOUND AT TIMES, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A BREEZY WEST NORTHWEST WIND MAY RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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