848
FXUS63 KBIS 010543
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A LARGER AREA OF FROST MAY COME THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
- AN OVERALL MAINLY DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES MAY RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST COULD BE IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS COULD BRING SOME AREAS OF FROST, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY HIGHLIGHT
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LITTLE TO NO UPDATES NEEDED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
LITTLE TO NO UPDATES NEEDED. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM IN CANADA PASSES TO THE NORTH, VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH AREAS ALONG THE ND/ CANADA
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUIT OF THIS MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THE SYSTEM EASTWARD.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE TOMORROW IN THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. WITH THESE COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS, THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS WITH FROST IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, COOL AIR
WILL REMAIN WITH LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF THIS,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL DIP LOWER THAN
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S AND MORE WIDESPREAD
FROST POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE THIS WOULD BE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE THIS FALL SEASON, IT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL.
BY FRIDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL BRING BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND FROM EITHER OF
THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM SLIGHTLY, YET OVERALL
REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS COULD ALSO BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SATURDAY MORNING SOME LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE PRESENT AS A
RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO THE 30S. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THIS WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALSO BRING SOME WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WITH FORECAST HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MILDER MORNING LOWS WOULD ALSO BE
FOUND WITH THIS PATTERN. AN INCREASED GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
COULD ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. A BREEZY NORTHWEST
WIND COULD RETURN THURSDAY, MAINLY FROM KMOT TO KBIS AND
EASTWARD, INCLUDING KJMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...MALARKEY
AVIATION...ANGLIN
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