745
FXUS63 KBIS 011932
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST IS FORECAST AGAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WARMING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
CURRENTLY, WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE REGION ALONG TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TIME (ALONG WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WEST). SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE 30S, WITH FROST DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE PRONE AREAS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES EAST FOR FRIDAY,
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION AND CONTRIBUTING TO
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT
MOISTURE REACHING THE SURFACE TO BE MINIMAL. RETURN FLOW ALSO
INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC HIGH, WITH A BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
WE REMAIN IN A STEADY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND, MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE NUDGES EAST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AS IT DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL PROVIDE FOR
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THE ONLY CONCERN REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE RH VALUES ARE
PROJECTED LOWEST NEXT WEEK (20-25 PERCENT), AND IF THIS IS
COUPLED WITH ANY ELEVATED AFTERNOON WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR KMOT,
KBIS, AND KJMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FOR FRIDAY.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH
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