446
FXUS63 KBIS 020352
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1052 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS STREAMING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THERE IS WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
ARE PLUMMETING IN LOW-LYING AREAS WHERE THERE ARE NO OR ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS. SOME AREAS MAY FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT,
BUT STILL THINK SUB-FREEZING LOWS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND TRENDS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
CURRENTLY, WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST
BREEZE AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE REGION ALONG TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TIME (ALONG WITH SOME SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WEST). SOME INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE 30S, WITH FROST DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE PRONE AREAS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES EAST FOR FRIDAY,
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION AND CONTRIBUTING TO
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRI AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT
MOISTURE REACHING THE SURFACE TO BE MINIMAL. RETURN FLOW ALSO
INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC HIGH, WITH A BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
WE REMAIN IN A STEADY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND, MAINTAINING MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE NUDGES EAST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AS IT DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL PROVIDE FOR
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY/TUESDAY, WHEN HIGHS
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80. THE ONLY CONCERN REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE RH VALUES ARE
PROJECTED LOWEST NEXT WEEK (20-25 PERCENT), AND IF THIS IS
COUPLED WITH ANY ELEVATED AFTERNOON WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-20 KTS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON
GUSTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HOLLAN
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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