938
FXUS63 KBIS 021835
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
135 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONT IN THE WEST
AND PRODUCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT
INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AREAS OUT
WEST. AN INCREASED GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ELEVATED FRONT,
WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES. OTHERWISE AREAS EAST WILL GENERALLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A
RESULT MORE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WIND WILL SHIFT TO BE BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW RH COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD BRING SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WEAKENING WINDS, WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SUNDAY, LOOK FOR SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARMING PERIOD DUE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RAISING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO AREAS OUT EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COMBINED WITH
LOW RH BRING BACK INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY,
AGAIN FOR AREAS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH TODAY. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ALONG
WITH SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH. MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS COULD THEN LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BREEZY AT TIMES SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KTS
GUSTING 30 KTS. WINDS LESSON TONIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT TO EVENTUALLY BE FRON THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS RETURN SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO
35 KTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MALARKEY
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