187
FXUS63 KBIS 022315
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ISOLATED WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SKIM OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DRY NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS, WITH DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES, WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THOUGH SOME SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING THOUGH REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND REORGANIZING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
IT REMAINS BROADLY ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONT IN THE WEST
AND PRODUCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT
INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AREAS OUT
WEST. AN INCREASED GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ELEVATED FRONT,
WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES. OTHERWISE AREAS EAST WILL GENERALLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A
RESULT MORE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WIND WILL SHIFT TO BE BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW RH COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD BRING SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WEAKENING WINDS, WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SUNDAY, LOOK FOR SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARMING PERIOD DUE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RAISING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO AREAS OUT EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COMBINED WITH
LOW RH BRING BACK INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY,
AGAIN FOR AREAS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING, SUSTAINED AROUND
15 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS, WILL DIMINISH EARLY
OVERNIGHT. LLWS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL, INCLUDING
AT KBIS AND KJMS, THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
REDEVELOP BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING, TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...MALARKEY
AVIATION...ADAM
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