220
FXUS63 KBIS 030558
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1258 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH STEEP ENOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZED
UPSTREAM IN MONTANA. WILL TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS. WITH POPS ALREADY IN PLACE, THE
FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WEAK RADAR RETURNS LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS MID TO LATE
EVENING UPDATE, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO GROUND OBSERVATIONS OF
PRECPITATION CAN BE FOUND AT THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE SATURATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SUFFICIENT
SATURATION ALOFT AND AMPLE FORCING FROM THE PASSAGE OF BOTH THE
OCCLUDING FRONT AND A DEVELOPING H7 JETSTREAK IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW PRECPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. THUS FOR THIS UPDATE WE
HAVE OPTED TO PROPAGATE LOW CHANCES (15 TO 35 PERCENT) ACROSS
FIRST WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, THEN NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT, UP TO AROUND ONLY A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ISOLATED WEAK RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SKIM OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT THE TIME OF THIS
EARLY EVENING UPDATE. DRY NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS, WITH DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES, WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND THOUGH SOME SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING THOUGH REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND REORGANIZING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
IT REMAINS BROADLY ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL LIFT THE STALLED FRONT IN THE WEST
AND PRODUCE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS HAS BROUGHT
INCREASED CLOUDS AND A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES TO AREAS OUT
WEST. AN INCREASED GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FOUND IN THE WEST AND THE WARMER SIDE OF THE ELEVATED FRONT,
WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES. OTHERWISE AREAS EAST WILL GENERALLY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A
RESULT MORE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BEHIND THE
WEAK COLD FRONT WIND WILL SHIFT TO BE BREEZY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW RH COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD BRING SOME INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
WEAKENING WINDS, WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. SUNDAY, LOOK FOR SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARMING PERIOD DUE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RAISING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
RETURN TO AREAS OUT EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COMBINED WITH
LOW RH BRING BACK INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY,
AGAIN FOR AREAS FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE FOUND TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE. FOR NOW
PLACED IN PROB30 TO SITES WITH A CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON SATURDAY, AND MAY BE
BREEZY AT TIMES. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST, INCLUDING KJMS, TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...MALARKEY
AVIATION...ADAM/ANGLIN
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