073
FXUS63 KBIS 031817
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
116 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OFTEN
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WHILE INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START. THOUGH INCOMING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROPS TONIGHT. WHILE
THE NBM DOES SATURATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 100
PERCENT, THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF AVERAGING OUT
MODELS WITHIN SUCH A MODEL BLEND. IN OTHER WORDS, DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DECENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION,
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN BREEZY WHICH USUALLY HELPS
PROHIBIT OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL IN ALL, FOG IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT, THOUGH LOCALIZED SHALLOW FOG
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IN THE 30S
TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, LOCALIZED FREEZING
IN TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEST
CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND ADVECTS WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WARMER AIR IS THEN LIKELY TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY, WITH 70S RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER
WHICH, A SLIGHT STATEWIDE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LOWS ARE FAVORED TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THE NBM MAINTAINS A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WAA COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO OVERALL DUE TO
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARD TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY, WITH AN OVERALL DRY MOISTURE PROFILE FAVORED. IN
ADDITION, POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE IS
FAVORED TO FLATTEN RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH ALSO FREQUENTLY PRODUCES LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WELL IN
ADVANCE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, BUT A FEW WEAK WAVES COULD PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS AT TIMES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING LIGHT AND OFTEN
VARIABLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TELKEN
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