665
FXUS63 KBIS 040200
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
900 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY CALM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AT THE TIME OF THIS MID TO LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE ALL BUT DIMINISHED
BY THIS TIME. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AT THE TIME OF THIS
EARLY EVENING UPDATE, AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION ONCE THE SUN SETS. NO MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WERE PERFORMED WITH THIS UPDATE AS
IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OFTEN
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WHILE INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START. THOUGH INCOMING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROPS TONIGHT. WHILE THE
NBM DOES SATURATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 100
PERCENT, THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DYNAMICS OF AVERAGING OUT
MODELS WITHIN SUCH A MODEL BLEND. IN OTHER WORDS, DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DECENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION,
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN BREEZY WHICH USUALLY HELPS
PROHIBIT OR AT LEAST LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALL IN ALL, FOG IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT, THOUGH LOCALIZED SHALLOW FOG
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE
INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, LOCALIZED
FREEZING IN TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS FAIL TO
MATERIALIZE. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A WEST CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND ADVECTS WARMER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY. WARMER AIR IS THEN LIKELY TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY, WITH 70S RETURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER
WHICH, A SLIGHT STATEWIDE COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. LOWS ARE FAVORED TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THE NBM MAINTAINS A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WAA COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO OVERALL DUE TO
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARD TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY, WITH AN OVERALL DRY MOISTURE PROFILE FAVORED. IN
ADDITION, POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE IS
FAVORED TO FLATTEN RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH ALSO FREQUENTLY
PRODUCES LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST WELL IN ADVANCE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, BUT A FEW WEAK
WAVES COULD PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS AT TIMES WHEN ALL IS SAID
AND DONE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REORGANIZE OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ADAM
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...ADAM
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