744
FXUS63 KBIS 050218
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAR SOUTHWEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- VERY WARM SOUTHWEST MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S. NOT AS
WARM ELSEWHERE, BUT STILL MILD.
- COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONABLE TO MILD TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTHEAST TO THE 70S
SOUTHWEST.
- BREEZY AT TIMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
- POSSIBLY MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RESIDE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S, WITH LOCALIZED LOCATIONS BOTH COOLER (MAINLY FAR NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL) AND WARMER (FAR SOUTHWEST). NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CURRENTLY, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA, SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN ND, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS THE RETURN FLOW WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT ANY FOG TONIGHT. EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND MAY SEE LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, AS WINDS WON'T PICK UP HERE UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORK ITS
WAY NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SPRINKLE OR ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER CAN'T
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT AM NOT GOING TO ADD ANY MENTION AT
THIS TIME. ANY PRECIP WOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 80S IN FAR SOUTHWEST ND. THE
NORMAL HIGH FOR DICKINSON IN EARLY OCTOBER IS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. IT WON'T BE AS WARM ELSEWHERE, BUT IT WILL MILD
PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN ND, WHILE IN
THE WEST, WINDS WILL DROP OFF, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST OVER FAR WESTERN ND MONDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ND
MONDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WORKS ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN ND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
REMAINS SITUATED NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW JET INDUCED SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN, BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE, WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS BACK NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
WARM UP AGAIN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE NBM IS DEPICTING LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40%)
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS FAVORING A COOLDOWN WITH AT LEAST
SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS ALSO IN DECENT ALIGNMENT
SUGGESTING THAT IT'S NOT "IF" WE HAVE A COOLDOWN, IT'S MORE OF A
"TO WHAT EXTENT" WILL WE COOL DOWN, AND HOW LONG WILL THE
COOLDOWN LAST BEFORE WE WARM BACK UP. NBM ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE FOR OCTOBER 11TH-13TH SHOWS QUITE A DROP OFF IN
TEMPERATURES AT ALL OBSERVATION SITES, BUT ALSO A VERY LARGE
SPREAD IN BOTH LOW AND ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE BOTH HINTING AT TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SOME SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST, THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF
THE STATE MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. BRIEF
LLWS COULD ALSO TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR, IT
WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE STATE (BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES) IS EXPECTED TO
SEE A FEW HOURS WHEN THE COMBINATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT, WILL CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS YOU GET NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS AREA, HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW, AND WINDS
NOT QUITE AS STRONG. EVEN IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THE DURATION OF
THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST MORE THAN A FEW (2-4) HOURS. IF HUMIDITIES DROP LOWER AND
WINDS ARE STRONGER THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED, OR A RED
FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ON TUESDAY, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS WARM AS ON MONDAY.
THERE, COULD STILL BE A COUPLE HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT WE WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW TREND CONTINUE
BEFORE INTRODUCING THE NEAR CRITICAL WORDING TO THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TELKEN
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TELKEN
FIRE WEATHER...TWH
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