435
FXUS63 KBIS 051125
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE MID 80S. NOT AS WARM ELSEWHERE, BUT STILL MILD.
- COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONABLE TO MILD TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTHEAST TO THE 70S
SOUTHWEST.
- BREEZY AT TIMES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
- POSSIBLY MUCH COOLER SUNDAY WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
LIMITED UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVER HAS NOT BEEN AS
ABUNDANT AS SOME MODELS FORECAST ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST. MADE SOME
SKY ADJUSTMENTS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH TO
BEGIN THE DAY AND BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. SOME HI-RES MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
EVEN HINT AT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, A
SURGE OF DRY AIR WILL MAKE THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOW TODAY THUS KEPT A MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO
A BREEZY WESTERLY WIND COULD BRING SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THIS AREA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME 80S
IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH A SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND FROM WEST TO
EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REST OF TONIGHT THEN LOOKS
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MILD LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT. A MORE
SUBTLE YET STILL POST FRONTAL DAY IS THEN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY YET STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. THERE COULD BE SOME
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH WINDS OVERALL DO NOT
LOOK AS BREEZY AS TODAY. WITH THIS DRY PATTERN, LOW RH VALUES IN
THE 20S WILL AGAIN BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COULD
PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, DEPENDING HOW STRONG THE WINDS
BECOME. SURFACE HIGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ARE
FORECAST, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER IS FOUND WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT, LIMITING ANY FOG
THREAT.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH LIGHT WINDS, AND
CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE
FOUND EACH MORNING DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER, WITH FORECAST LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD THEN RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NORTH DAKOTA IS
IN THE WARM AND MAINLY DRY SECTOR OF THIS LOW. THE RESULT COULD
BE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS,
AND BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CLUSTERS STILL INDICATING THE NEXT BROAD TROUGH PATTERN
MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS
PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED
IN THE NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS OVERALL GOING ON A LOWERING
TREND ALTHOUGH DO HAVE LARGE SPREADS AT TIMES. THIS COULD BRING
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR FREEZE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGER UNCERTAINTY IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. NBM KEEPS IN LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLUSTERS DIFFER WITH SOME SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH
PATTERN MOVING THROUGH, OTHERS SHOWING MORE OF A CUT OFF LOW
SETTING UP TO THE WEST, WHILE A FEW SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND
INDICATE MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS POSSIBLE. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL MORE
CONFIDENCE CAN BE ACHIEVED. SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN ENTER INTO THE AREA,
AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACCUMULATIONS THIS FAR OUT IS LOW. THIS
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY
WINDS AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH INCREASING RH VALUES SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND COULD BE BREEZY BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE FOUND FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF LLWS COULD TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE THIS LLWS AT THIS TIME
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA, WITH SOME 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COMBINED WITH A
SURGE OF DRY AIR COULD BRING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. WHILE THESE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWER, A WEAK COLD
FRONT COULD ENTER INTO THE WEST SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST, AND
COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES. THIS SHIFTING WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES COULD BRING SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALOFT ALIGN WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH
COULD FURTHER INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. OVERALL,
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY, YET
ONLY MODEST ON HAVING CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS. THUS WILL HOLD OFF
ON A FIRE HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE, HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE FOUND
TODAY, ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THESE BREEZIER LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE ABOVE 40 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS KEEP
POOR TO MODEST HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.
TUESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD LINGER, AND PERHAPS BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS. IN
ADDITION SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BE FOUND ON TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...ANGLIN
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN
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