002
FXUS63 KBIS 191743
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1243 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
A COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO END THE WEEK BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND INCREASING WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER OREGON INTO THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE, WITH HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHILE GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVER OUR AREA, QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ON THROUGH.
FOR TODAY, HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY IN ITS WAKE. OTHERWISE, A QUIET DAY IS ON
TAP THOUGH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH,
COMBINING WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON TUESDAY, BROAD RIDGING ENHANCES OVER THE MIDWEST NUDGING INTO
THE PLAINS, KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER OUR AREA BUT RESULTING IN A
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S CAN BE EXPECTED, WHICH ARE AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY, AFOREMENTIONED LOW DROPS SOUTHERLY
OFF THE WEST COAST, THEN PUSHES ONSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE, RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL KEEP VERY MILD TEMPERATURES OVER OUR AREA.
FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE TRICKY AS WE GET INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES ONSHORE
AND INTERACTS WITH THE LOW. THE TROUBLE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE IS
HOW THE LOW LIFTS UP ALONG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING WITH THIS.
NEVERTHELESS, THIS BRINGS LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS (80%+ CONFIDENCE). A FEW HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
SWOOPING BY PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(KXWA/KMOT) OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CEILING FREE.
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
MOVING EAST HAS SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
(KBIS/KMOT) AND WESTERN (KXWA/KDIK) NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SPEEDING AS HIGH AS 15-20KTS OUT WEST (10-15KTS
EVERYWHERE ELSE) THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PAIRED WITH WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30KTS OUT WEST (KXWA/KDIC), AND 20KTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA (KMOT/KBIS). WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WILL LIGHTEN THIS
EVENING, WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STICK BELOW 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (MAINLY AFTER 6Z).
WITH THE LIGHTENING WINDS, MARGINAL LLWS (25-35KTS) MAY BE POSSIBLE
TO EMERGE OVER KXWA/KMOT AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MODEL
CONFIDENCE HAS NOT YET BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY (OUTSIDE OF KJMS: 10-
15 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AFTER 14Z) WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JJS
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...STUMP
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