055
FXUS63 KBIS 192050
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
WITH A COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO END THE WEEK BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND INCREASING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
CURRENTLY, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST AND A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WITH DAYTIME MIXING
RESULTING IN A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, ALONG WITH A CLEAR SKY. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST WHERE THE BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS COINCIDE WITH RH VALUES IN THE 20S.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE THE WEEK, WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S RESULT (NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIRD WEEK OF OCT ARE IN THE LOW/MID 50S). AFTERNOON
HIGHS PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE 70S, WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOWER 80S THU OR FRIDAY FOR HIGHS
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER OR OTHER FACTORS, AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 25C (IN COMPARISON, BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS TODAY ARE IN THE LOW/MID TEENS C). ALSO ON FRIDAY,
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE AN EMBEDDED
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH, RESULTING IN
SHOWERS WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS COMING WEEKEND, TRENDING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO
REBUILD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THEREAFTER, THOUGH OUR FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS UNCERTAIN (ZONAL OR NORTHWESTERLY).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS (80%+ CONFIDENCE). A FEW HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
SWOOPING BY PRIMARILY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
(KXWA/KMOT) OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN CEILING FREE.
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
MOVING EAST HAS SET UP BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
(KBIS/KMOT) AND WESTERN (KXWA/KDIK) NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SPEEDING AS HIGH AS 15-20KTS OUT WEST (10-15KTS
EVERYWHERE ELSE) THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PAIRED WITH WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30KTS OUT WEST (KXWA/KDIK), AND 20KTS ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT/KBIS). WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE WILL
LIGHTEN THIS EVENING, WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STICK BELOW 10KTS
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (MAINLY AFTER 6Z).
WITH THE LIGHTENING WINDS, MARGINAL LLWS (25-35KTS) MAY BE POSSIBLE
TO EMERGE OVER KXWA/KMOT AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. MODEL
CONFIDENCE HAS NOT YET BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY (OUTSIDE OF KJMS: 10-
15 KTS GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AFTER 14Z) WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE
PERIOD.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEINERT
AVIATION...STUMP
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