461
FXUS63 KBIS 202310
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. NO UPDATES ARE NEED
AT THIS TIME AS TEMPERATURES 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A WEAK FRONT
BRINGING A WINDSHIFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TONIGHT,
WITH A STEADY NORTH WIND. GIVEN TRACK OF A SURFACE HIGH TONIGHT
AND CLEAR SKIES, BLENDED IN NBM 10TH PERCENTILE. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND FOR SOME
AREAS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH.
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY ALSO INCREASED TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT FROM THE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH. CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST. BEHIND TONIGHT'S FRONT COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER,
YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL, HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
GIVEN THIS MIXING BLENDED NBM WITH NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH
BRINGS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. A STEADY SOUTH WIND
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 40S. INCREASED DEWPOINTS
FROM THIS SOUTH WIND COULD ALSO BRING SOME HIGHER RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS MORE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THEN,
ALTHOUGH THE MENTIONED INCREASED WINDS AND OVERALL DRY STATE OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. EXPECT VERY WARM
CONDITIONS FROM THIS PATTERN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN
AMPLE MIXING FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW, CONTINUED BLENDING IN NBM
WITH NBM90TH FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS BRINGS HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S EACH DAY. SOME SITES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 WOULD
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ECMWF EFI VALUES
FOR MAXT ON FRIDAY ARE ELEVATED SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL. SURFACE
LOW ENCROACHES ON THE STATE FRIDAY WHICH COULD MAKE FOR SOME
BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LOWER RH
VALUES ENOUGH FOR SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH THESE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. INCREASING RH IS THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LIFTING
WARM FRONT WITH THIS SURFACE LOW COULD ALSO BRING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. CSU-MLP SHOWING SOME
LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
SHEAR LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED.
STRONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE FOUND FOR SATURDAY.
PERHAPS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP LIMIT THIS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO REMAIN SATURDAY NIGH WITH LOWS IN THE
20S. SUNDAY REMAINS COOL WITH LESS WIND. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JOHNSON
DISCUSSION...ANGLIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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