387
FXUS63 KBIS 220504
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1204 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORKWEEK, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST TONIGHT, BUT NOTHING CONCERNING. NO UPDATES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TRENDS HAVE BEEN BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TRAILING THERMAL
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY, BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND NEAR RECORD TERRITORY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT (MID 40S FAR NORTHWEST). DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER
WHICH, THE CURRENT NBM KEEPS THEN KEEPS THINGS MOSTLY DRY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, AS
UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS TOWARDS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRIDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE
FROPA IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO PASS THROUGH AT NIGHT, AND
THEREFORE NOT THE MOST IDEAL TIMEFRAME FOR TAPPING INTO THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT, CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTAIN
MODERATE PRESSURE RISES THAT COULD AID IN WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ANYWAYS. FURTHERMORE, SHOULD THE FRONT EITHER
COME THROUGH QUICKER OR SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, WHICH IS
ALWAYS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY, THEN WIND IMPACTS COULD BECOME
HIGHER IN THE END.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO FILTER
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S, AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ARE
PROGGED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANY
NIGHTS WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR AND WINDS GO RELATIVELY LIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TANK AND BECOME EVEN COOLER THAN THE
NBM CURRENTLY FORECASTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. VERY
FAINT HINT OF LOW STRATUS AT KBIS AND KDIK AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MENTION ATTIM. WILL MONITOR.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MID CLOUDS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. EXPECT A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL BEGIN WITH A PERIOD OF LLWS IN THE WEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. IT WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AND GUST TO
30 KTS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TELKEN
AVIATION...TWH
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