280
FXUS63 KBIS 221900
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
200 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORKWEEK, WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THEN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WEST AND NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO PROMOTE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT (AROUND 10-15 MPH) SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
ENSEMBLE CONSISTENTLY UNDERPERFORMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK WE HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES A 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON UTILIZING A 1:1 BLEND OF NBM:NBM90, RESULTING IN
FORECAST HIGHS BROADLY IN THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL PREVENT
THE LOW TEMPERATURE CRASH WE'VE SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEK. A FEW
CLIMATE SITES ARE SET TO BREAK THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGH MIN,
INCLUDING BIS, DIK, JMS, AND XWA.
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL THEN BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING
OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND. WITH FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA TURNING SOUTHERLY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES, FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DURING THE
DAYTIME LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO SPIT OUT A CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA, WHICH IS THEN TO SLOWLY BE
LIFTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE CHANCES (20 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THESE SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT).
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN INITIAL
PUSH OF CAA WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS (SUSTAINED
20 TO 25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH) TO MIX DOWN FROM A DEVELOP
850MB OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, STRONGER CAA AND GREATER PRESSURE RISES IS
THEN EXPECTED TO PROMOTE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND, COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
BROADLY IN THE 40S AND 50S ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE'S DECENT ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON SWINGING
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE NBM ADVERTISES NEAR DAILY LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES FOR POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH ENOUGH
VARIATION IN STORM TRACK BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO LIMIT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AT KBIS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
GUSTY LATE SATURDAY MORNING SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS.
BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAM
AVIATION...ADAM
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